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<u><strong>By Caroline Valetkevitch</strong></u><br>
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NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 will rise over 8% between now and end-2025 as U.S.<br>
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interest rate cuts and potentially less regulation under President-elect Donald Trump extend the market's strong run, according to a Reuters <br>
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poll of equity strategists.<br>
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Continued U.S. economic health will boost earnings growth, and some <br>
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strategists cited financials as among their top sector picks going into 2025, partly because of <br>
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prospects for deregulation under Trump.<br>
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Some market participants expect Trump's agenda of tax cuts and deregulation will propel economic growth and further gains in the market.<br>
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The benchmark S&P 500 will end 2025 at 6,500 points, according to the median forecast of 48 equity strategists, analysts, brokers and portfolio managers collected <br>
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Nov. 15-26. That's up about 8.5% from its 5,987.37 <br>
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close on Monday.<br>
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<u><b>The latest end-2025 forecast is sharply higher than the 5,900 <br>
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forecast in a Reuters poll in August.</b></u><br>
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Stocks rallied to record highs following the Nov. 5 <br>
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presidential election which Republican Trump won, four years <br>
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after being voted out of the White House.<br>
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Overall, the S&P 500 has surged about 26% so far in 2024, fueled <br>
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in part by sharp gains in Nvidia, Microsoft and other U.S.<br>
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heavyweights dominating the race for artificial intelligence technology.<br>
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David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs,<br>
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forecast in his recent 2025 equity outlook that the <br>
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"Magnificent 7" group of high-performing stocks - which include Nvidia and Microsoft - are likely <br>
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to outperform next year but "by a much smaller magnitude."<br>
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He sees higher earnings growth overall for the S&P 500 pushing the index to 6,500 by the <br>
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end of next year.<br>
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Analysts expect earnings growth of 14.2% in 2025 for the entire S&P 500, up from 10.2% this year, according to LSEG.<br>
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Following this year's rally, the S&P 500 is trading at 22.6 times expected <br>
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earnings, compared with a 10-year average of about 18, according <br>
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to LSEG.<br>
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"We're not concerned about valuations" because of the expected growth in earnings <br>
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and the economy, Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment <br>
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strategist at Sanctuary Wealth said.<br>
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<b>Also, she said, the Trump administration may be positive for business.</b><br>
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Worries remain over a potential inflationary rebound, which would change how much the Federal Reserve is able <br>
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to keep cutting rates.<br>
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The Fed embarked on its policy easing cycle with a large <br>
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half-percentage-point rate cut in September, its first reduction in borrowing <br>
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costs since 2020.<br>
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Some of Trump's plans, especially those for higher tariffs, could drive up consumer prices.<br>
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On Monday, Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, pledged <br>
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big tariffs on the United States' three largest trading <br>
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partners - Canada, Mexico and China.<br>
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<b>Turmoil in the Middle East is also still a concern for investors.</b><br>
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When asked whether a stock market correction of at least 10% <br>
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is likely early next year, eight of 17 poll participants who answered an additional question said it is likely <br>
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and two said it is highly likely. Six said it was unlikely and one said highly unlikely.<br>
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Among sectors, financials are up about 35% <br>
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for the year to date, leading gains among S&P 500 sectors, with <br>
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technology up 33%.<br>
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<u>Bank stocks have benefited in part from prospects for increased merger activity.</u><br>
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Deutsche Bank strategists wrote in an outlook report this week they remain overweight <br>
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financials "where a multitude of tailwinds are converging."<br>
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The poll has the Dow Jones industrial average finishing next <br>
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year at 46,600. The index closed at 44,736.57 on Monday.<br>
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<b>(Other stories from the Reuters Q4 global stock markets poll package)</b><br>
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(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; additional reporting <br>
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by Chuck Mikolajczak, Stephen Culp, Sinead Carew, Chibuike Oguh, Alden Bentley and Noel Randewich;<br>
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additional polling by Jaiganesh Mahesh and Rahul Trivedi; Editing by Bernadette Baum)<br>
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